Yuav luag 20 xyoo, South African hluav taws xob system tau paub txog nws txoj kev txiav txim siab tsis ncaj ncees lawm. Thaum pib, tsuas yog tshwm sim lig rau xyoo 2007, lo lus 'Load-tso' sai dhau los ua lub neej txhua hnub. Raws li lub sijhawm dhau mus thoob plaws hauv cov tub ntxhais hluas thiab 20s thaum ntxov, cov theem ntawm kev thauj khoom- poob zuj zus zuj zus, ua rau kev lag luam raug mob, cuam tshuam rau tsev neeg lub neej thiab rhuav tshem kev ntseeg siab ntawm cov tub lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis 15th 2026, Lub Xeev cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ESKOM tau ua tiav 1 xyoo ntawm cov khoom siv tsis cuam tshuam - 1st tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam lub zog txij li lub Cuaj Hlis 2018. Qhov kev vam meej no tau ua tiav los ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob tsis yog siv hluav taws xob loj nkaus xwb tab sis kuj los ntawm kev loj hlob tseem ceeb hauv kev tsim hluav taws xob hauv tsev.
Los ntawm kev kub ntxhov mus rau stabilization
Nyob rau hauv lub xyoo phem tshaj ntawm load-shedding, Eskom lub aging thee fleet tau tawm tsam kom ua raws li qhov kev thov, yuam cov nqi hluav taws xob los hlawv cov roj hluav taws xob kim hauv lub voj voog qhib roj turbines raws li kev ntsuas kub ceev los tiv thaiv kab sib chaws. Tus xov tooj nyiaj txiag tau staggering. Niaj hnub no, kev txhim kho kev ruaj ntseg tau txuag Eskom R26.9 billion nyob rau hauv cov nqi diesel tshaj peb xyoos. Kev siv Diesel tau poob 78% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab cov khoom siv tam sim no sawv ntawm kwv yees li 99.7%.
Txawm li cas los xij, Eskom txoj kev ua haujlwm hloov pauv tsuas yog ib nrab ntawm zaj dab neeg. Thaum lub chaw siv hluav taws xob tau tsa nws Lub Zog Muaj Zog los ntawm 54.55% hauv 2023 mus txog kwv yees li 65.35% hauv 2026, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob rov qab tau tshwm sim tawm tsam qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev thov hluav taws xob poob. Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Statistics South Africa qhia tau hais tias muaj kev cog lus ruaj khov hauv kev tsim hluav taws xob thiab kev siv hluav taws xob - tiam neeg poob 6.9% xyoo-rau-xyoo nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 2026. Ib feem ntawm qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob no ncaj qha rau tom qab-the-meter rooftop hnub ci, uas hloov daim phiaj hluav taws xob rau cov tsev thiab cov lag luam uas tam sim no tsim lawv tus kheej lub zog.
Lub ru tsev hnub ci tawg
South Africa qhov kev faib tawm ntawm lub hnub ci zog tau loj hlob thiab los ntawm 2025 tau mus txog 7415 MWac, uas tshaj li tag nrho 7172 MW rau tag nrho cov ntawv cog lus Independent Power Producers (IPPs) rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tauj dua tshiab uas muab Eskom lub sijhawm ntawd. Cov lej no hais txog qhov kev loj hlob sai ntawm cov ru tsev PV kev teeb tsa hauv ob xyoos ua ntej thaum muaj qee qhov me me ntawm lub ru tsev PV teeb tsa. Kev loj hlob ntawm cov hnub ci hauv tsev tau nce kwv yees li 400 feem pua ntawm xyoo 2021 thiab txij li nruab nrab xyoo 2025 yog tshaj 6.8 GW.
Qhov kev loj hlob sai ntawm lub ru tsev PV kev teeb tsa tau zoo faib thoob plaws lub tebchaws, nrog Gauteng Province yog kwv yees li 30% ntawm tag nrho lub teb chaws kev teeb tsa, thiab Gauteng, KZN thiab Western Cape ua ke sawv cev rau qee qhov 60% ntawm tag nrho cov kev teeb tsa PV. Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2025 ib leeg, PV ru tsev tsim tau kwv yees li 5.4 terawatt- teev hluav taws xob, uas yog kwv yees li 5% ntawm tag nrho cov hluav taws xob siv hauv South Africa.
Qhov tseem ceeb, qhov kev loj hlob tau txuas ntxiv txawm tias qhov kev thauj khoom tau poob qis. Thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev thaum tsaus ntuj ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam thawj zaug, 2025 pom cov ntaub ntawv 4,100 MW ntawm lub zog ntiag tug sau npe nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo - nce 208% nyob rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo 2024. Qhov no taw qhia rau kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb hauv kev txhawb siab: South Africans tsis yog tsuas yog ceeb-ntsia nruab hnub ci kom muaj sia nyob; lawv tau ua li ntawd vim tias nce Eskom cov nqi se ua rau tus kheej tsim kev lag luam nyuaj. Hauv Cape Town, daim phiaj hluav taws xob raug nqi kwv yees li R3.73 ib kWh los ntawm nruab nrab xyoo 2025, piv nrog R1.56 ib kWh los ntawm lub hnub ci lub ru tsev - ntau dua 50% pheej yig dua.
Yuav ua li cas lub ru tsev PV stabilizes daim phiaj (thiab tsim kev sib tw tshiab)
Thaum xub thawj siab ib muag, faib tiam tej zaum yuav zoo li cuam tshuam rau cov nqi hluav taws xob cov qauv kev lag luam. Thiab qhov tseeb, qhov nkhaus nkhaus yog ciaj sia thiab zoo nyob rau hauv South Africa: nyob rau hnub tshav ntuj, lub hnub ci ntsa iab tuaj yeem tshem tawm 5 GW ntawm daim phiaj thaum nruab hnub, nce mus rau 8 GW thaum tav su thiab yav tsaus ntuj ncov. Qhov no yuam Eskom txhawm rau txhim kho cov hluav taws xob hluav taws xob sai sai thaum lub hnub poob - qhov kev sib tw uas yuav tsum tau ua haujlwm yooj yim thiab, nce ntxiv, roj teeb cia.
Txawm li cas los xij cov txiaj ntsig net tau muaj zog ruaj khov. Los ntawm kev txo cov kev xav tau siab tshaj plaws, lub ru tsev PV alleviates kev ntxhov siab ntawm kev sib kis thiab kev faib khoom. Kev siv hluav taws xob qis dua txhais tau hais tias Eskom qhov kev tawm tsam thee nkoj tsis tas yuav khiav ntawm qhov qaij tag nrho, tso cai rau ntau chav rau kev npaj kho. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev xa mus thoob plaws hauv qab-the-meter systems tau tsim ib qho kev faib tawm "virtual power plant": thaum ua ke nrog cov roj teeb hauv tsev, ntau lab lub tshuab me me tuaj yeem chais qhov xav tau ntawm lub sijhawm tseem ceeb, ncaj qha txo qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev thauj khoom. Chris Ahlfeldt, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm lub zog ntawm Blue Horizon Energy Consulting Services, sau tseg tias qhov kev thov qis dua, nce nqi se thiab kev tsim tawm sai ntawm lub hnub ci saum ru tsev - tam sim no kwv yees ntau dua 7.5 GW - tau sib koom ua ke pab nres load-shedding.
Saib tom ntej: kev hloov pauv kev lag luam thiab cov kev sib tw seem
South Africa tau mus txog qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb. Lub National Energy Regulator (NERSA) tau tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv sau tseg uas suav nrog cov ntawv cog lus vesting, kev cai ua lag luam thiab cov nqi lag luam wholesale - lub tsev thaiv kev lag luam hluav taws xob sib tw. Txawm li cas los xij, cov neeg soj ntsuam ceeb toom tias cov kev cai uas tau hais tseg yuav mus deb dhau los tiv thaiv Eskom cov khoom kim heev, ib puag ncig tsis ua raws li cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob, muaj peev xwm txwv kev lag luam ntiag tug hauv kev tsim kho tshiab. Eskom CEO Dan Marokane lees paub tias qhov kev siv hluav taws xob tau txav los ntawm txoj kev ciaj sia mus rau theem kev loj hlob tiag tiag, tab sis ntxiv tias kev tswj hwm kev qhuab qhia yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb kom tsis txhob poob rov qab.
Ob peb qhov kev sib tw tseem nyob. Thaum lub teb chaws thauj khoom tau raug tshem tawm, hauv zos "txo qis" - lub hom phiaj kev txiav los tiv thaiv cov khoom siv ntau dhau - tseem cuam tshuam ntau pua txhiab tsev neeg, txawm hais tias Eskom tau tshem tawm tag nrho hauv Northern thiab Western Cape. Ntau lub hauv paus, cov khoom lag luam crunch looms ntawm 2029 thiab 2030: Eskom kwv yees tias 10.3 GW ntawm lub hnub ci tshiab, 7.4 GW ntawm cua, 3.7 GW ntawm kev cia thiab 6 GW roj yuav xav tau los online los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm lub xyoo caum.
Cov lus qhia rau lub ntiaj teb
South Africa qhov kev paub dhau los muab cov ntaub ntawv kawm nyuaj rau lwm qhov kev lag luam tawm tshiab sib tw nrog cov phiaj xwm tsis txaus ntseeg thiab nce nqi hluav taws xob. Qhov kev pom tseem ceeb yog lub hnub ci lub ru tsev muaj peev xwm ua tau raws li kev daws teeb meem ob lub hom phiaj: nws muab lub zog ruaj ntseg rau cov neeg siv khoom ib leeg thaum sib sau ua ke los daws qhov teeb meem ntawm kev tawm tsam hauv lub tebchaws. Qhov tseem ceeb, qhov kev hloov pauv hauv qab no tau tshwm sim yam tsis muaj tsoomfwv loj nyiaj pab. Nws tau tsav los ntawm kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm qhov tsim nyog (load-shedding), poob nqi kho vajtse, thiab kev suav nyiaj txiag muaj txiaj ntsig uas tsim tus kheej ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig nyiaj txiag.
Raws li South Africa nkag mus rau lub caij ntuj no ntawm 2026, Eskom cia siab tias yuav muaj cov khoom seem ntawm kwv yees li 6 GW, tsis muaj kev kwv yees txog kev thauj mus los txog rau lub Yim Hli. Txawm hais tias qhov kev ruaj ntseg no ua pov thawj ruaj khov yuav nyob ntawm kev tswj xyuas cov kev qhuab qhia cog qoob loo, kev hloov pauv kev lag luam nrawm dua thiab - qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws - txuas ntxiv mus puag lub hnub ci kev hloov pauv uas tau pab tig lub teeb rov qab. Lub ru tsev kiv puag ncig tsis tau cia South Africa tawm ntawm qhov tsaus ntuj; nws muaj peev xwm hloov kho lub teb chaws lub zog yav tom ntej, ib lub hnub ci vaj huam sib luag ib zaug.
