TSHIAB DELHI- Tau ntau xyoo, Is Nrias teb zaj dab neeg hnub ci yog ib qho tsis sib xws. Lub teb chaws tau sib tw los ua ib lub ntiaj teb ceev tshaj plaws - kev lag luam hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv, txhim kho lub hnub ci muaj peev xwm ntawm breakneck ceev. Txawm li cas los xij, yuav luag txhua lub vaj huam sib luag tsim tau tso siab rau cov khoom siv txawv teb chaws, cov khoom siv, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob - ntau dhau los ntawm Tuam Tshoj. Qhov kev cia siab ntawd, ib zaug pom tias yog tus nqi uas tsis tuaj yeem zam tau ntawm kev xa mus sai, tam sim no tau raug tshem tawm. Nyob rau hauv nws qhov chaw, ib tug domestic manufacturing ecosystem yog tshwm sim uas tsis yog tsuas yog txo cov imports tab sis positioning Is Nrias teb raws li lub ntiaj teb no kev sib tw hnub ci hub.
Lub sijhawm Import Dependency Era
Tsuas yog ob peb xyoos dhau los, Is Nrias teb cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob hnub ci yog pob txha. Module manufacturing peev xwm sawv ntawm ib tug tsuas yog 8 GW nyob rau hauv 2021. Solar cell muaj peev xwm txawm ntau anemic, nrog domestic ntau lawm npog tsuas yog ib feem ntawm lub teb chaws tus surge thov. Cov neeg tsim tawm qhov project, caum cov sijhawm ua haujlwm nruj heev, tig mus rau qhov pheej yig tshaj plaws: Tuam Tshoj. Thiab Tuam Tshoj dominated. Hauv FY25 ib leeg, Is Nrias teb tau xa 352.57 lab hnub ci photovoltaic modules muaj nqis txog $ 1.69 billion los ntawm Tuam Tshoj, nrog kwv yees li 60 mus rau 80 feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov hnub ci kev lag luam los ntawm lub teb chaws.
Qhov kev vam khom no txuas mus deb dhau ntawm cov modules tiav. "Is Nrias teb kev vam khom rau Tuam Tshoj nyob rau hauv lub hnub ci kev lag luam tseem siab, tab sis nws tau hloov los ntawm cov qauv tiav mus rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab saud," tau soj ntsuam Alekhya Datta, tus thawj coj ntawm hluav taws xob thiab rov ua dua tshiab ntawm Lub Zog thiab Kev Pabcuam Lub Tsev Haujlwm (TERI). Raws li module sib dhos muaj peev xwm nthuav dav, kev xa tawm ntawm cov hlwb tau nce. Hauv FY26, Is Nrias teb tau xa tawm 8.01 billion lub hnub ci, nce 58 feem pua los ntawm 5.06 billion xyoo dhau los. Tuam Tshoj txoj kev koom nrog hauv Is Nrias teb hnub ci PV cell ntshuam sawv ntawm 65 feem pua hauv FY26. Cov ntu ntu nruab nrab yog qhov nyob ntawm ntau dua - lub teb chaws tsis muaj kev lag luam polysilicon ntau lawm thiab tsuas yog kwv yees li 2 GW ntawm ingot thiab wafer muaj peev xwm.
Txoj Cai Revolution
Lub sijhawm tseem ceeb tshwm sim vim muaj kev sib koom ua ke txoj cai pib. Xyoo 2021, tsoomfwv tau nthuav tawm nws Txoj Haujlwm Txuas Txuas Txuas Txuas (PLI) rau Kev Ua Haujlwm Zoo Hnub Ci PV Modules uas tuaj nrog pob peev nyiaj ntawm INR 240 billion (US $ 2.7 billion). Los ntawm cov tswv yim no, tsoomfwv tau muab kev tsim khoom-txuas kev txhawb nqa hauv tsev rau tsib xyoos los txhawb kev tsim khoom hauv zos ntawm hnub ci PV Modules thiab ua rau lub teb chaws tus kheej - txaus nyob rau hauv txoj haujlwm. Raws li lub Rau Hli 2025, PLI lub tswv yim tau pab ua kom tiav lub peev xwm ntawm 18.5 GW ntawm lub hnub ci module muaj peev xwm, 9.7 GW ntawm lub peev xwm ntawm tes, thiab 2.2 GW ntawm ingot thiab wafer muaj peev xwm.
Ua kom tiav PLI yog Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo Cov Qauv thiab Cov Chaw Tsim Tshuaj (ALMM) lub hauv paus. ALMM Daim ntawv teev npe-Kuv tau yuam kom siv cov kev pom zoo hauv tsev rau tsoomfwv-cov haujlwm txhawb nqa. Daim ntawv teev npe-II, uas tau pib siv rau lub hnub ci hnub ci thaum Lub Rau Hli 1, 2026, txuas ntxiv qhov yuav tsum tau ua rau cov hlwb. Tsoom fwv tsis kam lees daim pam txuas ntxiv rau ALMM Daim Ntawv Teev Npe -II ua raws, xa cov teeb liab pom tseeb tias kev tsim khoom tus kheej- kev cia siab tsis muaj kev xaiv ntxiv lawm.
Kev lis kev cai tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv hnub ci tuaj txawv teb chaws (40 feem pua) thiab cov hlwb (20 feem pua, ntxiv rau cov se ntxiv) ntxiv tilted qhov chaw ua si hauv kev pom zoo ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom hauv tsev. Cov lus yog unmistakable: Is Nrias teb yuav tsis tsuas yog ib lub lag luam rau hnub ci zog - nws yuav yog ib tug chaw tsim tshuaj paus.
Lub Peev Xwm tawg
Cov kev tshwm sim tau staggering. Nyob rau hauv 2025 ib leeg, Is Nrias teb ntxiv 119 GW ntawm lub hnub ci module tsim muaj peev xwm - yog ib qho kev lag luam sai tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm ntawm lub zog huv. Kev tsim cov qauv tsim muaj peev xwm nce mus txog kwv yees li 210 GW thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2025. Module muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv ALMM List-Kuv tau nce los ntawm 67.3 GW thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2025 mus rau 193.9 GW thaum lub Tsib Hlis 2026. Cell manufacturing peev, thaum tseem lag luam, loj hlob los ntawm tsawg dua 5 GW mus rau 27-30 GW tib lub sijhawm.
Is Nrias teb tau teeb tsa lub hnub ci muaj peev xwm hla 150 GW hauv lub Peb Hlis 2026, ua rau lub teb chaws yog lub ntiaj teb thib ob - hnub ci lag luam loj tshaj plaws. Lub hauv paus kev tsim khoom hauv tsev uas txhawb nqa qhov kev xa tawm no tau nthuav dav los ntawm 8.2 GW hauv 2021 mus rau ntau dua 170 GW.
Txoj Kev Sib Tw: Cells
Txawm li cas los xij, zaj dab neeg tsis yog yam tsis muaj nws cov qauv tawg. Qhov sib txawv ntawm module muaj peev xwm thiab lub peev xwm ntawm tes tseem yog qhov kev lag luam muaj qhov tsis zoo tshaj plaws. Raws li lub Peb Hlis 2026, module tsim muaj peev xwm sawv ntawm 173 GW, thaum lub hnub ci muaj peev xwm tsuas yog ~ 30 GW - tsuas yog 20 feem pua ntawm cov module muaj peev xwm. Qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb no txhais tau hais tias txawm tias Is Nrias teb tau sau cov lej ntawm cov qauv hauv tsev, cov chaw tsim khoom tseem vam khom ntau ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj thiab cov khoom siv nkag.
Tus nqi sib tw tseem yog lwm qhov teeb meem. Kev tsim hluav taws xob hauv tsev hnub ci yog ze li 40 feem pua ntau dua li nws cov neeg suav hauv Suav. Kev siv peev nyiaj Indian yog nyob ib puag ncig 109 feem pua siab dua, thiab cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev yuav tsum tau muab cov nyiaj muab tshuaj txhuam ntawm ze li ntawm 24 feem pua cov nqi siab dua. Ib qho Indian- sib dhos module siv cov hlwb raug nqi tsawg kawg yog US $ 0.03 ib watt ntau dua li cov khoom siv suav suav suav tag nrho, thaum lub sijhawm tag nrho 'Ua hauv Is Nrias teb' module tuaj yeem raug nqi ntau dua ob npaug.
Tsis tas li ntawd, kev tsim khoom hauv tsev tseem nyob ntawm cov tshuab tuaj txawv teb chaws thiab kev paub txog- yuav ua li cas. Kev ua kom zoo dua qub rau cov thev naus laus zis tshiab xws li TOPCon tuaj yeem siv sijhawm ze li 12 lub hlis hauv Is Nrias teb, piv nrog 7-8 lub hlis rau cov laus PERC thev naus laus zis. Cov tuam txhab tsim khoom hauv tsev siv tsuas yog 0.1 feem pua ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm R & D, piv nrog txog li 2 feem pua rau cov neeg suav suav.
Qhov Export Breakthrough
Txawm hais tias muaj kev sib tw no, Is Nrias teb lub hnub ci kev tsim hluav taws xob tau nce mus nrhiav cov neeg yuav khoom hla nws ciam teb. Hnub ci module xa tawm tau nce 30.7 feem pua hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm FY26, los ntawm US $ 712.8 lab rau US $ 932 lab. Tebchaws Asmeskas ib leeg suav txog yuav luag tag nrho qhov nce, nrog rau kev xa khoom nce 31.83 feem pua. Hauv xyoo 2025, cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv tsev tau xa tawm txog 5 GW ntawm cov qauv, nrog rau Asmeskas suav txog 96.8 feem pua ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj.
Is Nrias teb txoj kev sawv hauv ntiaj teb tau txais kev lees paub. Adani Hnub Ci qeb thib rau hauv ntiaj teb hauv Wood Mackenzie's 2026 Ntiaj Teb Hnub Ci PV Module Chaw Tsim Tshuaj Ranking, ua rau nws yog ib qho zoo tshaj plaws - qeb duas tsis yog -Suav cov neeg tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb. Waaree thiab Premier Energies kuj tau txais Qib A hauv tib qib.
Tus nqi sib txawv yog nqaim. Qhov chaw tus nqi sib txawv ntawm Indian thiab Suav TOPCon modules poob los ntawm 9 txog 5.7 US ¢ / W ntawm thaum ntxov 2024 thiab Lub Kaum Hli 2025. Is Nrias teb kuj nyiam cov khoom siv logistics zoo: cov nqi thauj khoom los ntawm Is Nrias teb mus rau Tebchaws Europe sawv cev txog 5 feem pua ntawm cov nqi module, piv nrog 8.7 feem pua los ntawm Tuam Tshoj, thiab shipping emissions 65 ib xees ntawm txoj kev no. Cov xwm txheej no ua rau Is Nrias teb tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo rau European kev lag luam nce kev txhawj xeeb nrog cov saw hlau ruaj khov thiab cov pa roj carbon hneev taw.
Txoj Kev Ua Ntej
Is Nrias teb lub hom phiaj tsim khoom ntau dua li cov hnub ci vaj huam sib luag xwb. Lub peev xwm ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob hnub ci hauv Is Nrias teb yuav nce los ntawm 26 GW hauv 2025 txog li 171 GW los ntawm xyoo 2030. Tsoomfwv Indian tau tshaj tawm cov phiaj xwm los tsim 40 GW ntawm wafer tsim muaj peev xwm los ntawm 2027 thiab pib tsim cov polysilicon. Raws li Crisil Ratings, lub tsev tsim hluav taws xob hnub ci yuav muaj peev xwm muab tau txog li ib nrab ntawm qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv hnub ci ntawm 60-65 GW hauv FY26-27, piv rau li 25 feem pua ntawm xyoo dhau los.
Txawm li cas los xij, tseem muaj cov teeb meem tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum tau dhau los ua kom lub teb chaws mus txog thoob ntiaj teb cov qauv kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam hnub ci. Raws li cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam, Is Nrias teb yuav tsis ncav cuag thoob ntiaj teb kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam no yam tsis muaj kev tsim tawm tag nrho cov ntsiab lus ntawm tus nqi saw (los ntawm ingots mus rau panels) ntawm nws thaj chaw. Qhov teeb meem ntawm kev ua polysilicon, ingots, thiab wafers los ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev yog ib qho kev sib tw tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum tau daws los ntawm cov tuam txhab Indian.
Dab tsi yog qhov tseeb, txawm li cas los xij, yog tias kev hloov pauv twb tau zoo lawm. Is Nrias teb tau txav los ntawm kev ua tus neeg xa khoom tsis zoo ntawm lub hnub ci thev naus laus zis mus rau tus tsim muaj peev xwm tsim khoom. Lub teb chaws uas ib zaug tso siab rau lwm tus rau nws lub hnub ci yav tom ntej yog tam sim no sau nws tus kheej tshooj - ib lub vaj huam sib luag, ib lub xov tooj ntawm tes, thiab ib lub wafer ib zaug.
